Risk prediction model for severe atopic dermatitis development in children

Semernik O.E., Lebedenko A.A., Dobaeva N.M., Spiridenko G.Yu., Klenushkin A.A.

Rostov State Medical University of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Aim: to develop a model for predicting severe course of atopic dermatitis in children.

Materials and methods. A comprehensive study of 209 pediatric cases of atopic dermatitis was carried out (infant form was diagnosed in 33.6% of patients, pediatric form in 52.9%, adolescent form in 13.5%). Using the logit regression method, a statistical analysis of factors that increase the risk of severe disease was carried out and a number of parameters were determined that with a high probability aggravate this pathological process.

Results. A mathematical model has been created to assess the prognosis of the risk of severe atopic dermatitis in children. It takes into account such factors as the number of years lived, age of disease onset, SCORAD score, blood pressure, presence of gastrointestinal pathology. Based on the data obtained, a computer program has been created that makes it possible to calculate the risk of a severe course of the disease within a few seconds.

Conclusion. The developed model makes it possible to quickly and reliably predict the severe course of atopic dermatitis, which is necessary in the conditions of the growing prevalence of this disease. This method allows timely assessment of risks and correction of local and systemic therapy.